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At first, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "significant ramifications" in August in case Russia's president continued hindering peace discussions, Trump eventually enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This move significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

But, through his newly presented detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by both nations' representatives without Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan in reality compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, as if giving Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Concessions

While freezing in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a essential barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he later choose to resume the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's plan declares: "Every Nazi ideology and practices must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that Putin has broken comparable accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a handback of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we believe this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" should Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "major, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not