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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.