Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the Premier League this campaign concerns the reduction of scoring in open play and the way sides have been scoring more from set-pieces as an alternative.
Comparing scoring methods to the first 11 games last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
Examining the bigger picture, the number of shots teams are taking show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time last time out.
And despite the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show just two more shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to score from set-pieces.
Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative
Over 300 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures to date calculates at 2.74 goals per fixture, if maintained for the entire campaign might be the smallest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
But just 196 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 each match and is on course to be the least for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).
The 2009-10 season is also the unique EPL season to experience scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded by far the biggest drop, registering only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolverhampton, England's top division's decline in open-play scoring is largely a London thing, with five out of the London's seven clubs scoring at least five less scores from open play than the previous year.
In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring lots of goals at the beginning of last season instead of them having difficulty to find the net in open play this season.
Conversely City have recorded the largest rise, with all but one of their 23 goals this season originating in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Comparing the promoted teams with the relegated sides they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 on their way to relegation the previous campaign.
In terms of scoring from set-pieces (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have seen the biggest increase, with each team compensating for the five fewer scores that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
United have recorded twice as many goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season before Ruben Amorim took over, while Sunderland additionally have been more successful at scoring than the similar-colored team that went down.
Man City seem unaware of the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, since they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, even if this could be because of the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
General Tendencies
Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – have been this term's primary examples by netting less goals from open play and increased from set-plays, while City are the unique club to buck the trend so far by achieving the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to see if sides carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start scoring more goals in open-play also.
